top of page
usgs-nF1FvXdJL7o-unsplash.jpg
11_nachhaltige-produkte-energie.jpg

Energy markets

Green Fuels: Market and competitive analysis for the European context

CLIENT

Listed energy company​

​

EXPERTISE

Energy markets

​

SERVICE

Market and competitive analysis of the Chinese green fuels market and its significance for Europe

01 INITIAL SITUATION

  • China is building up large-scale green fuels capacities with state support, primarily for the shipping sector.

  • Domestic demand has so far remained weak. This raises the question of where these volumes will end up.

  • In Europe, the FuelEU Maritime Regulation is creating regulatory-driven demand for green fuels in shipping.

  • With new technologies, political announcements and actual market developments often diverge. A sound assessment therefore requires a close look at capacities, costs and demand.

  • For an energy company with its own green fuel projects, the key questions was therefore how competitive Chinese volumes would be on the European market.

02 APPROACH

STEP 01

Research and interviews

​

We carried out extensive research and conducted interviews with experts from the fields of industry, research, plant engineering and market analysis in China. We also compared announcements with the actual status of completed projects.

STEP 03

Market access

​​

An assessment was carried out to determine the conditions under which Chinese volumes can be certified in accordance with the EU criteria for electricity-based fuels (RFNBO). In addition, offtake agreements with shipping companies and trade policy risks were evaluated.

STEP 02

Supply and demand

​

We have compared the state-subsidised expansion of capacity with weak domestic demand. In doing so, we have identified the factors that shape both sides of the market.

​

​

STEP 04

Demand drivers

​

Using FuelEU Maritime as an example, we showed how EU requirements are driving demand for green fuels, including the conditions under which Chinese volumes can count towards compliance.

​

03 RESULTS

Competitiveness assessment

The report provides a sound assessment of the competitiveness of how competitive Chinese green fuels are on the European market.

Clearly identified gaps

The report highlights areas where, despite political announcements, there is as yet no real demand and where certification and cost issues are still unresolved.

A basis for decision-making

The report enables the company to decide which of its green fuels projects are economically viable and worth pursuing.

bottom of page